Why Is This American Government Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat element of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with bad blood between both major parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – as well as the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
Here are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation at the other side, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator and other Democrats called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.